Russian forces have conducted limited offensive operations and infiltrations southeast of Dobropillya in Donetsk Oblast, including areas near the settlement of Novyi Donbas, as part of broader efforts to advance toward the Fortress Belt cities of Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Slovyansk. Kremlin statements and military reporting continue to emphasize seizure of the full Donetsk Oblast as a core objective, with repeated deadlines set for the end of 2026, though independent assessments indicate Russian territorial gains remain modest at roughly 2-3 square kilometers per day on average. Ukrainian counteroffensives, including Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman sector, have disrupted northern flanking attempts, while the southern axis toward Dobropillya has faced sustained resistance. Diplomatic contacts involving U.S. envoys have highlighted Moscow’s insistence on full territorial control before negotiations, amid ongoing artillery, drone, and ground engagements that shape trader assessments of near-term capture prospects for specific settlements.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWill Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?
$88,716 Vol.
October 31
25%
$88,716 Vol.
October 31
25%
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Novyi Donbas: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Novyi+Donbas1.png
Novyi Donbas Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Novyi+Donbas2.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fsRaQXJ6vikXNKYu9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 24, 2026, 3:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Novyi Donbas: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Novyi+Donbas1.png
Novyi Donbas Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Novyi+Donbas2.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fsRaQXJ6vikXNKYu9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have conducted limited offensive operations and infiltrations southeast of Dobropillya in Donetsk Oblast, including areas near the settlement of Novyi Donbas, as part of broader efforts to advance toward the Fortress Belt cities of Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Slovyansk. Kremlin statements and military reporting continue to emphasize seizure of the full Donetsk Oblast as a core objective, with repeated deadlines set for the end of 2026, though independent assessments indicate Russian territorial gains remain modest at roughly 2-3 square kilometers per day on average. Ukrainian counteroffensives, including Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman sector, have disrupted northern flanking attempts, while the southern axis toward Dobropillya has faced sustained resistance. Diplomatic contacts involving U.S. envoys have highlighted Moscow’s insistence on full territorial control before negotiations, amid ongoing artillery, drone, and ground engagements that shape trader assessments of near-term capture prospects for specific settlements.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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