Traders assign a 98.3% probability against Elon Musk announcing a presidential run before 2027 chiefly due to his ineligibility under the U.S. Constitution's natural-born citizen clause. Born in South Africa, Musk cannot qualify without a constitutional amendment requiring two-thirds approval in both chambers of Congress and ratification by three-fourths of the states—an outcome with no realistic path in the current session or near term. His public comments have consistently signaled no interest in elected office, reinforcing the market's assessment. Scenarios that could still shift odds remain narrow, such as an unforeseen amendment effort or a formal announcement despite the barrier, though both face steep procedural and political hurdles before the end of 2026.