Traders see near-even odds between 5-7 and 8-10 downtime days for Claude because early September has already produced multiple incidents of elevated errors on models including Mythos 5.1 and Fable 5.1, plus degraded Claude API latency and Windows-specific Claude Cowork issues lasting hours each. These align with Anthropic’s reported 99.4 percent uptime over the prior 90 days and a pattern of infrastructure strain from surging demand on its large language models. Recent overlapping outages with competing providers underscore shared scaling pressures across frontier AI platforms. The balanced market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether these short disruptions will moderate or recur through the month’s remaining load spikes and any upcoming model updates.