Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberal-National Coalition holding a consistent two-party preferred lead over Labor of around 54-46 since the July 2026 leadership transition to Ben Carroll, a swing large enough to deliver a majority in most seat projections for the November 28 election. Primary vote trends place the Coalition near 28-29 percent, Labor at 24-25 percent, and One Nation at 23-25 percent, with voter concerns over state debt nearing $200 billion and Suburban Rail Loop costs weighing on the incumbent. Opposition Leader Jess Wilson maintains a clear edge as preferred premier. These patterns underpin trader consensus favoring a Coalition victory while assigning lower probabilities to Labor or One Nation forming government, given preference flows and the fragmented primary vote. No major shifts have emerged in the past week to alter this positioning.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateLiberal–National 71%
Labor 22%
One Nation 9.8%
Greens <1%
$14,681 Vol.
$14,681 Vol.
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
71%
Labor
22%
One Nation
10%
Greens
<1%
Liberal–National 71%
Labor 22%
One Nation 9.8%
Greens <1%
$14,681 Vol.
$14,681 Vol.
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
$6,984 Vol.
71%
Labor
$3,487 Vol.
22%
One Nation
$3,600 Vol.
10%
Greens
$611 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberal-National Coalition holding a consistent two-party preferred lead over Labor of around 54-46 since the July 2026 leadership transition to Ben Carroll, a swing large enough to deliver a majority in most seat projections for the November 28 election. Primary vote trends place the Coalition near 28-29 percent, Labor at 24-25 percent, and One Nation at 23-25 percent, with voter concerns over state debt nearing $200 billion and Suburban Rail Loop costs weighing on the incumbent. Opposition Leader Jess Wilson maintains a clear edge as preferred premier. These patterns underpin trader consensus favoring a Coalition victory while assigning lower probabilities to Labor or One Nation forming government, given preference flows and the fragmented primary vote. No major shifts have emerged in the past week to alter this positioning.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$14,681Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 28, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberal-National Coalition holding a consistent two-party preferred lead over Labor of around 54-46 since the July 2026 leadership transition to Ben Carroll, a swing large enough to deliver a majority in most seat projections for the November 28 election. Primary vote trends place the Coalition near 28-29 percent, Labor at 24-25 percent, and One Nation at 23-25 percent, with voter concerns over state debt nearing $200 billion and Suburban Rail Loop costs weighing on the incumbent. Opposition Leader Jess Wilson maintains a clear edge as preferred premier. These patterns underpin trader consensus favoring a Coalition victory while assigning lower probabilities to Labor or One Nation forming government, given preference flows and the fragmented primary vote. No major shifts have emerged in the past week to alter this positioning.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$14,681Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 28, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberal-National Coalition holding a consistent two-party preferred lead over Labor of around 54-46 since the July 2026 leadership transition to Ben Carroll, a swing large enough to deliver a majority in most seat projections for the November 28 election. Primary vote trends place the Coalition near 28-29 percent, Labor at 24-25 percent, and One Nation at 23-25 percent, with voter concerns over state debt nearing $200 billion and Suburban Rail Loop costs weighing on the incumbent. Opposition Leader Jess Wilson maintains a clear edge as preferred premier. These patterns underpin trader consensus favoring a Coalition victory while assigning lower probabilities to Labor or One Nation forming government, given preference flows and the fragmented primary vote. No major shifts have emerged in the past week to alter this positioning.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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