Recent diplomatic signals and mutual restraint have sustained the fragile US-Iran ceasefire framework established through the June memorandum of understanding on Strait of Hormuz navigation and related issues. President Trump publicly ruled out strikes before the November 3 midterms while describing ongoing talks as productive, aligning with administration priorities to contain escalation ahead of congressional contests. Iranian officials have focused leverage efforts on oil market pressure rather than direct military resumption, even as implementation disputes persist over Lebanese front-line actions and sanctions relief timelines. Both sides have maintained back-channel negotiations via mediators and phone contacts without triggering major new hostilities in the past month. Traders appear to price in these incentives for de-escalation through early November, though unresolved nuclear and proxy issues leave room for shifts if talks stall.