Traders see a 97% chance that President Trump will not face removal under the 25th Amendment before 2027, driven by the provision's steep requirements and lack of any documented incapacity or internal moves to invoke it. The process demands the vice president plus a cabinet majority to certify inability to perform duties, with Congress resolving disputes via a two-thirds vote in both chambers. No public health developments, administration statements, or cabinet signals have emerged to suggest activation, consistent with the amendment's sole prior uses for temporary voluntary transfers. Midterm elections in November 2026 and routine cabinet turnover could indirectly affect dynamics, yet the current alignment of institutional actors and historical precedent sustain the strong market consensus against removal.