Traders assign roughly even implied probabilities of 30-38% across September 12-17 for the next Grok model at version 4.7 or higher, signaling uncertainty over xAI's precise release window rather than a clear frontrunner. This clustering reflects xAI's pattern of rapid large language model iterations driven by competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, where demonstrated capabilities and benchmark results often determine timing. Recent official updates or internal progress reports on model training and safety evaluations likely anchor the near-term consensus, while the modest 30.8% on or prior to September 9 accounts for any last-minute shifts. Upcoming catalysts such as developer conferences, executive statements, or regulatory filings on AI deployment could quickly reprice outcomes as new information emerges.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNext Grok Model (4.7+) released on...?
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on...?
September 12 34.8%
September 16 33.2%
September 15 30.9%
September 17 30.3%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
<1%
September 10
1%
September 11
1%
September 12
35%
September 13
1%
September 14
33%
September 15
31%
September 16
33%
September 17
30%
September 18
21%
September 19
1%
September 20
1%
September 21
1%
September 22
3%
September 23
7%
September 24
3%
September 25
1%
September 26
<1%
September 27
<1%
September 28
1%
September 29
1%
September 30
1%
No release by September 30
3%
September 12 34.8%
September 16 33.2%
September 15 30.9%
September 17 30.3%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
$166 Vol.
<1%
September 10
$202 Vol.
1%
September 11
$205 Vol.
1%
September 12
$550 Vol.
35%
September 13
$322 Vol.
1%
September 14
$205 Vol.
33%
September 15
$257 Vol.
31%
September 16
$215 Vol.
33%
September 17
$215 Vol.
30%
September 18
$411 Vol.
21%
September 19
$530 Vol.
1%
September 20
$505 Vol.
1%
September 21
$505 Vol.
1%
September 22
$345 Vol.
3%
September 23
$572 Vol.
7%
September 24
$345 Vol.
3%
September 25
$505 Vol.
1%
September 26
$505 Vol.
<1%
September 27
$505 Vol.
<1%
September 28
$379 Vol.
1%
September 29
$379 Vol.
1%
September 30
$505 Vol.
1%
No release by September 30
$345 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign roughly even implied probabilities of 30-38% across September 12-17 for the next Grok model at version 4.7 or higher, signaling uncertainty over xAI's precise release window rather than a clear frontrunner. This clustering reflects xAI's pattern of rapid large language model iterations driven by competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, where demonstrated capabilities and benchmark results often determine timing. Recent official updates or internal progress reports on model training and safety evaluations likely anchor the near-term consensus, while the modest 30.8% on or prior to September 9 accounts for any last-minute shifts. Upcoming catalysts such as developer conferences, executive statements, or regulatory filings on AI deployment could quickly reprice outcomes as new information emerges.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
Volume
$8,674Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign roughly even implied probabilities of 30-38% across September 12-17 for the next Grok model at version 4.7 or higher, signaling uncertainty over xAI's precise release window rather than a clear frontrunner. This clustering reflects xAI's pattern of rapid large language model iterations driven by competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, where demonstrated capabilities and benchmark results often determine timing. Recent official updates or internal progress reports on model training and safety evaluations likely anchor the near-term consensus, while the modest 30.8% on or prior to September 9 accounts for any last-minute shifts. Upcoming catalysts such as developer conferences, executive statements, or regulatory filings on AI deployment could quickly reprice outcomes as new information emerges.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,674Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign roughly even implied probabilities of 30-38% across September 12-17 for the next Grok model at version 4.7 or higher, signaling uncertainty over xAI's precise release window rather than a clear frontrunner. This clustering reflects xAI's pattern of rapid large language model iterations driven by competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, where demonstrated capabilities and benchmark results often determine timing. Recent official updates or internal progress reports on model training and safety evaluations likely anchor the near-term consensus, while the modest 30.8% on or prior to September 9 accounts for any last-minute shifts. Upcoming catalysts such as developer conferences, executive statements, or regulatory filings on AI deployment could quickly reprice outcomes as new information emerges.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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