Recent model updates from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Meta in early September have tightened the race for third place on style-controlled Arena leaderboards, where traders see no dominant contender. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 strengthened coding and agentic benchmarks, while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra emphasized intelligence and cybersecurity capabilities, and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 delivered competitive gains in developer tasks alongside its open-weight distribution strategy. Google’s Gemini refinements and Chinese labs such as Alibaba add further pressure through cost and regional performance edges. With implied probabilities remaining fragmented and resolution approaching month-end, any additional capability demonstrations or benchmark shifts could quickly alter trader consensus on the hierarchy behind the top two labs.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update#3 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)
#3 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)
Google 50%
Meta 20%
OpenAI 11.9%
Alibaba 4.2%
$89,532 Vol.
$89,532 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
50%
Meta
20%
OpenAI
12%
Alibaba
4%
Moonshot
2%
Z.ai
2%
Anthropic
1%
ByteDance
1%
Baidu
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 50%
Meta 20%
OpenAI 11.9%
Alibaba 4.2%
$89,532 Vol.
$89,532 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
$13,176 Vol.
50%
Meta
$24,073 Vol.
20%
OpenAI
$3,412 Vol.
12%
Alibaba
$9,203 Vol.
4%
Moonshot
$2,560 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$1,472 Vol.
2%
Anthropic
$20,278 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$2,015 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$1,413 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$1,367 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$1,182 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,310 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,409 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,245 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$818 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$829 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$799 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$480 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$659 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$700 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,134 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model updates from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Meta in early September have tightened the race for third place on style-controlled Arena leaderboards, where traders see no dominant contender. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 strengthened coding and agentic benchmarks, while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra emphasized intelligence and cybersecurity capabilities, and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 delivered competitive gains in developer tasks alongside its open-weight distribution strategy. Google’s Gemini refinements and Chinese labs such as Alibaba add further pressure through cost and regional performance edges. With implied probabilities remaining fragmented and resolution approaching month-end, any additional capability demonstrations or benchmark shifts could quickly alter trader consensus on the hierarchy behind the top two labs.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$89,532Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model updates from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Meta in early September have tightened the race for third place on style-controlled Arena leaderboards, where traders see no dominant contender. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 strengthened coding and agentic benchmarks, while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra emphasized intelligence and cybersecurity capabilities, and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 delivered competitive gains in developer tasks alongside its open-weight distribution strategy. Google’s Gemini refinements and Chinese labs such as Alibaba add further pressure through cost and regional performance edges. With implied probabilities remaining fragmented and resolution approaching month-end, any additional capability demonstrations or benchmark shifts could quickly alter trader consensus on the hierarchy behind the top two labs.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$89,532Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model updates from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Meta in early September have tightened the race for third place on style-controlled Arena leaderboards, where traders see no dominant contender. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 strengthened coding and agentic benchmarks, while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra emphasized intelligence and cybersecurity capabilities, and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 delivered competitive gains in developer tasks alongside its open-weight distribution strategy. Google’s Gemini refinements and Chinese labs such as Alibaba add further pressure through cost and regional performance edges. With implied probabilities remaining fragmented and resolution approaching month-end, any additional capability demonstrations or benchmark shifts could quickly alter trader consensus on the hierarchy behind the top two labs.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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