Recent US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged enrichment infrastructure, with IAEA monitoring detecting no repair or reconstruction activity through late October 2026. The lack of inspector access since mid-2025 has left approximately 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium unaccounted for under safeguards obligations, while regional mediation continues without breakthrough. These verified setbacks underpin the 95.5% trader consensus on no nuclear weapon before 2027. Scenarios that could still shift odds include renewed IAEA inspections enabling material verification, diplomatic arrangements for downblending the stockpile, or undetected recovery of capabilities at hardened sites.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateView resolved

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