The high market-implied probability for "Other" stems from the rapid September 2026 wave of frontier large language model releases, including Anthropic's Claude Opus 5.5 on September 22 and Claude Fable 5.1 earlier in the month, alongside OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini 3.8 Flash. These launches have fragmented benchmarks across coding, reasoning, and efficiency metrics, with no single model establishing consistent dominance on leaderboards as of late September. Trader consensus views the two-week window to October 12 as too short for any one release to pull decisively ahead, especially given typical post-launch tuning and competitive responses. Upcoming developer updates or benchmark refreshes could still shift positioning before resolution.