Recent pre-election surveys from institutes including INSA, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and Infratest dimap placed the AfD at 17–18 percent in Berlin, reflecting gains from its 9.1 percent result in the 2023 repeat election amid national momentum for the party. This positioning stems from broader voter shifts on migration, security, and economic concerns that have boosted AfD support in eastern states, though Berlin’s urban electorate and the exclusionary stance of other parties toward coalitions have capped further advances. Late-campaign polls showed stability in this range despite AfD successes elsewhere, such as in Saxony-Anhalt, with minor variations tied to turnout expectations and undecided voters. Exit projections on election day have introduced additional uncertainty around the final tally. Trader consensus on the 14–17 percent band aligns with these consistent polling levels and the city’s distinct political dynamics.