Recent polls from late August 2026 place Bündnis 90/Die Grünen at 5% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, right at the 5% electoral threshold required for Landtag entry. Infratest dimap, Forsa, and INSA surveys show the party holding steady near this level ahead of the 20 September vote, with minimal movement in the final weeks. The Greens' result will determine whether they secure seats and influence coalition options, as the SPD-Linke government trails the leading AfD and lacks a majority on current numbers. The BSW sits at 4% while the FDP falls below the threshold, underscoring how small shifts in turnout or undecided voters could decide the Grüne outcome. Trader consensus on the Over side reflects this polling tightness and the narrow margin around the cutoff.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateOver
Over
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls from late August 2026 place Bündnis 90/Die Grünen at 5% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, right at the 5% electoral threshold required for Landtag entry. Infratest dimap, Forsa, and INSA surveys show the party holding steady near this level ahead of the 20 September vote, with minimal movement in the final weeks. The Greens' result will determine whether they secure seats and influence coalition options, as the SPD-Linke government trails the leading AfD and lacks a majority on current numbers. The BSW sits at 4% while the FDP falls below the threshold, underscoring how small shifts in turnout or undecided voters could decide the Grüne outcome. Trader consensus on the Over side reflects this polling tightness and the narrow margin around the cutoff.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update


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