The extremely short window until September 30 underpins traders’ near-certain view that the Islamic Republic will not fall, as the regime has maintained control through six months of U.S.-Israeli strikes, leadership succession after Ali Khamenei’s death, and repeated internal protests. Security institutions including the IRGC and Basij have shown cohesion, with recent mobilizations and crackdowns containing dissent while diplomatic channels via Qatar remain active for de-escalation. Economic sanctions and naval pressure have weakened capabilities without triggering rapid institutional collapse. Realistic shifts could still arise from sudden elite fractures, an unanticipated surge in coordinated unrest, or decisive external military action targeting remaining command structures before month-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว<1% โอกาส
$2,419,970 ปริมาณ
$2,419,970 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
<1% โอกาส
$2,419,970 ปริมาณ
$2,419,970 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The extremely short window until September 30 underpins traders’ near-certain view that the Islamic Republic will not fall, as the regime has maintained control through six months of U.S.-Israeli strikes, leadership succession after Ali Khamenei’s death, and repeated internal protests. Security institutions including the IRGC and Basij have shown cohesion, with recent mobilizations and crackdowns containing dissent while diplomatic channels via Qatar remain active for de-escalation. Economic sanctions and naval pressure have weakened capabilities without triggering rapid institutional collapse. Realistic shifts could still arise from sudden elite fractures, an unanticipated surge in coordinated unrest, or decisive external military action targeting remaining command structures before month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,419,970วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The extremely short window until September 30 underpins traders’ near-certain view that the Islamic Republic will not fall, as the regime has maintained control through six months of U.S.-Israeli strikes, leadership succession after Ali Khamenei’s death, and repeated internal protests. Security institutions including the IRGC and Basij have shown cohesion, with recent mobilizations and crackdowns containing dissent while diplomatic channels via Qatar remain active for de-escalation. Economic sanctions and naval pressure have weakened capabilities without triggering rapid institutional collapse. Realistic shifts could still arise from sudden elite fractures, an unanticipated surge in coordinated unrest, or decisive external military action targeting remaining command structures before month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,419,970วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...The extremely short window until September 30 underpins traders’ near-certain view that the Islamic Republic will not fall, as the regime has maintained control through six months of U.S.-Israeli strikes, leadership succession after Ali Khamenei’s death, and repeated internal protests. Security institutions including the IRGC and Basij have shown cohesion, with recent mobilizations and crackdowns containing dissent while diplomatic channels via Qatar remain active for de-escalation. Economic sanctions and naval pressure have weakened capabilities without triggering rapid institutional collapse. Realistic shifts could still arise from sudden elite fractures, an unanticipated surge in coordinated unrest, or decisive external military action targeting remaining command structures before month-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย