**Morena holds a commanding position in the Tabasco state congress election market at 79%, reflecting its entrenched dominance in the state.** Recent federal midterm results showed the party and its allies sweeping all six federal districts in Tabasco, consistent with broader national trends favoring the ruling coalition. State-level polling from mid-2026 projects Morena capturing roughly 60% of the vote and retaining or expanding its existing majority (currently around 21 of 35 seats), far ahead of smaller parties like PVEM, PRI, PT, MC, and PAN, which register in single digits. Governor Javier May’s sustained 68% approval rating, driven by social programs, further bolsters the party’s standing ahead of the 2027 contest. Internal Morena candidate processes for municipal and federal posts have proceeded without major disruptions that would alter the outlook. Traders price the outcome according to these structural advantages and the absence of competitive opposition momentum.