Voter fatigue after three years of conflict since October 2023, combined with a notably subdued campaign lacking large rallies or widespread excitement, shapes trader expectations for turnout in the October 27 Knesset election. With over 7.3 million eligible voters—an 8% increase including many first-time participants—mobilization of core bases such as Haredi communities, which historically exceed 75-80% participation, supports probabilities clustering at 72-74%. Arab sector turnout remains a variable influenced by party mergers and threshold dynamics, while broader war-weariness and focus on get-out-the-vote efforts rather than persuasion limit upside potential. The election marks the first full Knesset term since 1988, adding structural context without shifting recent sentiment toward higher engagement.