Justice Samuel Alito’s August 2026 confirmation that he intends to serve another full term has anchored trader expectations against a Supreme Court vacancy this year. At 76, Alito and 78-year-old Clarence Thomas remain the court’s oldest members; both have dismissed retirement speculation through public statements, clerk hiring patterns extending into 2027, and the absence of reported health concerns that would compel departure. No other justices have signaled plans to step down, and historical patterns show most recent retirements occurring near or after age 80. With the 2026 midterm elections still ahead, Senate control remains uncertain but does not alter the near-term signals from the sitting justices. These factors have produced the current 78.5% implied probability that no vacancy will arise before year-end.