**SpaceX has demonstrated repeated Super Heavy booster catches and reflights with the Mechazilla tower arms on recent flights through mid-2026, validating first-stage recovery.** However, the upper-stage Starship (Ship) has only achieved controlled splashdowns, most notably on Flight 13 (July 24, 2026), which delivered an intact vehicle, undamaged heat shield data, successful Raptor relight, and V3 Starlink deployment. Tower-catch attempts for the Ship remain untested as of mid-September 2026, with Flight 14 (NET September 18) positioned as the first orbital mission and potential catch target. Elon Musk has projected the first Ship reflight for late 2026 or early 2027, contingent on regulatory approvals, data review, and further V3 iterations addressing engine reliability, reentry performance, and rapid turnaround. Achieving full, rapid reusability—both stages caught, refurbished minimally, and reflown multiple times—before the end of 2026 faces tight margins given typical development timelines, potential setbacks, and the need for demonstrated multi-flight vehicle cycles. These factors underpin the market-implied 64% probability on “No.”