Above-average Western North Pacific activity has driven trader consensus toward 7–9 total landfalls in China for 2026, with 8 holding the highest implied probability. As of early September, China Meteorological Administration data recorded seven landfalls—well above the long-term average of roughly 4.9—following an early surge that included multiple July systems such as Bavi and Maysak. National Climate Center outlooks project 5–7 additional tropical cyclones through September, with 2–3 expected to land or significantly affect the mainland amid favorable sea-surface temperatures and potential El Niño steering patterns. Remaining uncertainty centers on late-season recurvature, October genesis rates, and model spread in track forecasts, which could shift totals below or above the current 7–9 cluster before year-end resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
8 39%
Greater than 8 31%
7 30.1%
Fewer than 5 <1%
$57,816 ปริมาณ
$57,816 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
<1%
5
<1%
6
<1%
7
30%
8
39%
Greater than 8
31%
8 39%
Greater than 8 31%
7 30.1%
Fewer than 5 <1%
$57,816 ปริมาณ
$57,816 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
$2,089 ปริมาณ
<1%
5
$5,253 ปริมาณ
<1%
6
$3,892 ปริมาณ
<1%
7
$7,020 ปริมาณ
30%
8
$13,303 ปริมาณ
39%
Greater than 8
$26,261 ปริมาณ
31%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Above-average Western North Pacific activity has driven trader consensus toward 7–9 total landfalls in China for 2026, with 8 holding the highest implied probability. As of early September, China Meteorological Administration data recorded seven landfalls—well above the long-term average of roughly 4.9—following an early surge that included multiple July systems such as Bavi and Maysak. National Climate Center outlooks project 5–7 additional tropical cyclones through September, with 2–3 expected to land or significantly affect the mainland amid favorable sea-surface temperatures and potential El Niño steering patterns. Remaining uncertainty centers on late-season recurvature, October genesis rates, and model spread in track forecasts, which could shift totals below or above the current 7–9 cluster before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$57,816วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Above-average Western North Pacific activity has driven trader consensus toward 7–9 total landfalls in China for 2026, with 8 holding the highest implied probability. As of early September, China Meteorological Administration data recorded seven landfalls—well above the long-term average of roughly 4.9—following an early surge that included multiple July systems such as Bavi and Maysak. National Climate Center outlooks project 5–7 additional tropical cyclones through September, with 2–3 expected to land or significantly affect the mainland amid favorable sea-surface temperatures and potential El Niño steering patterns. Remaining uncertainty centers on late-season recurvature, October genesis rates, and model spread in track forecasts, which could shift totals below or above the current 7–9 cluster before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$57,816วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Above-average Western North Pacific activity has driven trader consensus toward 7–9 total landfalls in China for 2026, with 8 holding the highest implied probability. As of early September, China Meteorological Administration data recorded seven landfalls—well above the long-term average of roughly 4.9—following an early surge that included multiple July systems such as Bavi and Maysak. National Climate Center outlooks project 5–7 additional tropical cyclones through September, with 2–3 expected to land or significantly affect the mainland amid favorable sea-surface temperatures and potential El Niño steering patterns. Remaining uncertainty centers on late-season recurvature, October genesis rates, and model spread in track forecasts, which could shift totals below or above the current 7–9 cluster before year-end resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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