Labour’s selection of Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali as its candidate on 9 September has reinforced trader consensus that she is the frontrunner to retain the seat in the 8 October by-election triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation. Abdi-Wali, a local councillor since 2022 and council leader since May, brings a strong community profile in a constituency Labour has held continuously since 1983 and where the party led recent local ward results. Zack Polanski, the Green Party leader seeking nomination against local challenger Hamza Chowdhury, remains the main alternative at lower implied probability, reflecting Green gains among progressive voters in inner London on housing and related issues. Other named candidates trail far behind, consistent with the seat’s structural Labour lean and limited time for late shifts before nominations close on 15 September.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วSagal Abdi-Wali 68%
Zack Polanski 29%
Hamza Chowdhury 3.3%
Sarah Hayward 1.1%
$25,198 ปริมาณ
$25,198 ปริมาณ
Sagal Abdi-Wali
68%
Zack Polanski
29%
Hamza Chowdhury
3%
Sarah Hayward
1%
Luisa Porritt
<1%
Andrew Feinstein
<1%
James White
<1%
Pat Callaghan
<1%
Tricia Leman
<1%
Richard Olszewski
<1%
Georgia Gould
<1%
Gio Spinella
<1%
Adam Harrison
<1%
Lorna Jane Russell
<1%
David Stansell
<1%
Jim Monahan
<1%
Siân Berry
<1%
Charlie Clinton
<1%
Keith Moffitt
<1%
Mehreen Malik
<1%
Oliver Cooper
<1%
David Roberts
<1%
Sarah Pochin
<1%
Sagal Abdi-Wali 68%
Zack Polanski 29%
Hamza Chowdhury 3.3%
Sarah Hayward 1.1%
$25,198 ปริมาณ
$25,198 ปริมาณ
Sagal Abdi-Wali
68%
Zack Polanski
29%
Hamza Chowdhury
3%
Sarah Hayward
1%
Luisa Porritt
<1%
Andrew Feinstein
<1%
James White
<1%
Pat Callaghan
<1%
Tricia Leman
<1%
Richard Olszewski
<1%
Georgia Gould
<1%
Gio Spinella
<1%
Adam Harrison
<1%
Lorna Jane Russell
<1%
David Stansell
<1%
Jim Monahan
<1%
Siân Berry
<1%
Charlie Clinton
<1%
Keith Moffitt
<1%
Mehreen Malik
<1%
Oliver Cooper
<1%
David Roberts
<1%
Sarah Pochin
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 1, 2026, 12:13 PM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Labour’s selection of Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali as its candidate on 9 September has reinforced trader consensus that she is the frontrunner to retain the seat in the 8 October by-election triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation. Abdi-Wali, a local councillor since 2022 and council leader since May, brings a strong community profile in a constituency Labour has held continuously since 1983 and where the party led recent local ward results. Zack Polanski, the Green Party leader seeking nomination against local challenger Hamza Chowdhury, remains the main alternative at lower implied probability, reflecting Green gains among progressive voters in inner London on housing and related issues. Other named candidates trail far behind, consistent with the seat’s structural Labour lean and limited time for late shifts before nominations close on 15 September.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
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