The market's strong preference for a 2026 maximum of 7.9 or below reflects the current recorded peak of 7.8 from the June Philippines event, with subsequent activity including a 7.7 in Indonesia and several 7.4–7.5 shocks but no escalation above that threshold through mid-September. USGS catalogs show typical global rates of roughly one magnitude 8.0+ event per year, and recent M6+ sequences in subduction zones like the Philippines and Indonesia have not produced the extended rupture lengths needed for higher magnitudes on the moment magnitude scale. With limited time remaining, trader-implied odds align with the low statistical likelihood of a late-year megathrust event, though ongoing seismic monitoring could still capture unexpected shifts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
7.9 or below 75%
8.0 – 8.1 12%
8.2 – 8.3 6.3%
8.6 – 8.7 4.1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jan 3, 2027
7.9 or below
75%
8.0 – 8.1
12%
8.2 – 8.3
6%
8.4 – 8.5
2%
8.6 – 8.7
4%
8.8 – 8.9
1%
9.0 or above
3%
7.9 or below 75%
8.0 – 8.1 12%
8.2 – 8.3 6.3%
8.6 – 8.7 4.1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jan 3, 2027
7.9 or below
$2,485 ปริมาณ
75%
8.0 – 8.1
$562 ปริมาณ
12%
8.2 – 8.3
$782 ปริมาณ
6%
8.4 – 8.5
$206 ปริมาณ
2%
8.6 – 8.7
$311 ปริมาณ
4%
8.8 – 8.9
$208 ปริมาณ
1%
9.0 or above
$166 ปริมาณ
3%
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.The market's strong preference for a 2026 maximum of 7.9 or below reflects the current recorded peak of 7.8 from the June Philippines event, with subsequent activity including a 7.7 in Indonesia and several 7.4–7.5 shocks but no escalation above that threshold through mid-September. USGS catalogs show typical global rates of roughly one magnitude 8.0+ event per year, and recent M6+ sequences in subduction zones like the Philippines and Indonesia have not produced the extended rupture lengths needed for higher magnitudes on the moment magnitude scale. With limited time remaining, trader-implied odds align with the low statistical likelihood of a late-year megathrust event, though ongoing seismic monitoring could still capture unexpected shifts.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,720วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 4, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.The market's strong preference for a 2026 maximum of 7.9 or below reflects the current recorded peak of 7.8 from the June Philippines event, with subsequent activity including a 7.7 in Indonesia and several 7.4–7.5 shocks but no escalation above that threshold through mid-September. USGS catalogs show typical global rates of roughly one magnitude 8.0+ event per year, and recent M6+ sequences in subduction zones like the Philippines and Indonesia have not produced the extended rupture lengths needed for higher magnitudes on the moment magnitude scale. With limited time remaining, trader-implied odds align with the low statistical likelihood of a late-year megathrust event, though ongoing seismic monitoring could still capture unexpected shifts.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,720วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 4, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The market's strong preference for a 2026 maximum of 7.9 or below reflects the current recorded peak of 7.8 from the June Philippines event, with subsequent activity including a 7.7 in Indonesia and several 7.4–7.5 shocks but no escalation above that threshold through mid-September. USGS catalogs show typical global rates of roughly one magnitude 8.0+ event per year, and recent M6+ sequences in subduction zones like the Philippines and Indonesia have not produced the extended rupture lengths needed for higher magnitudes on the moment magnitude scale. With limited time remaining, trader-implied odds align with the low statistical likelihood of a late-year megathrust event, though ongoing seismic monitoring could still capture unexpected shifts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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