**A magnitude 6.6 earthquake struck in the Coral Sea near New Caledonia’s Loyalty Islands (around 80 km ENE of Tadine) on September 25, 2026, at shallow depth (~10 km), according to USGS, EMSC, and other official monitoring data.** This event, part of a sequence including several 5.0–5.5 aftershocks and smaller quakes elsewhere (e.g., Chile, Indonesia), was the day’s largest by a wide margin and easily exceeded the 6.1 threshold. Global seismic catalogs for the period list no larger events on that date, creating overwhelming evidence that anchored the market-implied odds at essentially 100% for “6.1 or more.” Trader consensus reflects verified observational data rather than forecasts, with the skin-in-the-game structure incentivizing accurate assessment of the clear magnitude and timing. A realistic challenge would require a substantial downward revision of the official magnitude by agencies like the USGS—unlikely given multiple station confirmations—or a determination that the event fell outside the precise 24-hour UTC window due to timezone reporting, though current records place it firmly on the 25th. No other developments in the past 30 days meaningfully altered this positioning.