Recent meteorological data and forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration show Chengdu experiencing clear to partly cloudy conditions on September 29, with southerly winds and high solar insolation supporting a daily maximum near 31°C. This aligns with late-September climatology for the Sichuan basin, where daytime heating peaks before autumn cooling sets in, and current surface observations confirm temperatures climbing steadily toward that level without significant convective inhibition. The 100% market-implied probability reflects strong model consensus and minimal uncertainty in the final hours before resolution. Unexpected afternoon cloud buildup or localized precipitation could still cap readings below the threshold, though such developments remain unlikely given stable pressure patterns.