**Claude Fable 5.1 Max holds an 82.5% market-implied probability** of being the best AI model on September 21 due to its September 1 release as Anthropic’s latest Mythos-class frontier large language model. It delivers measurable gains in long-horizon coding, agentic reasoning, and knowledge-work benchmarks over Fable 5 and Opus 5, with top scores on leaderboards as of mid-September 2026. Trader consensus reflects the model’s recent availability across major platforms, improved efficiency for complex tasks, and lack of stronger competing releases in the prior two weeks. Opus 5 variants trail at low single-digit odds, consistent with their earlier July launch and comparatively lower performance on the hardest evaluations. With resolution imminent, the market prices in limited scope for rapid shifts before September 21.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วclaude-fable-5.1-max 83%
Other 14%
claude-opus-5-max 1.7%
claude-opus-5-high 1.4%
$12,688 ปริมาณ
$12,688 ปริมาณ
Sep 21, 2026
claude-fable-5.1-max
83%
Other
14%
claude-opus-5-max
2%
claude-opus-5-high
1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
1%
claude-fable-5.1-max 83%
Other 14%
claude-opus-5-max 1.7%
claude-opus-5-high 1.4%
$12,688 ปริมาณ
$12,688 ปริมาณ
Sep 21, 2026
claude-fable-5.1-max
$5,609 ปริมาณ
83%
Other
$5,486 ปริมาณ
14%
claude-opus-5-max
$599 ปริมาณ
2%
claude-opus-5-high
$430 ปริมาณ
1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$564 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Claude Fable 5.1 Max holds an 82.5% market-implied probability** of being the best AI model on September 21 due to its September 1 release as Anthropic’s latest Mythos-class frontier large language model. It delivers measurable gains in long-horizon coding, agentic reasoning, and knowledge-work benchmarks over Fable 5 and Opus 5, with top scores on leaderboards as of mid-September 2026. Trader consensus reflects the model’s recent availability across major platforms, improved efficiency for complex tasks, and lack of stronger competing releases in the prior two weeks. Opus 5 variants trail at low single-digit odds, consistent with their earlier July launch and comparatively lower performance on the hardest evaluations. With resolution imminent, the market prices in limited scope for rapid shifts before September 21.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,688วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 21, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Claude Fable 5.1 Max holds an 82.5% market-implied probability** of being the best AI model on September 21 due to its September 1 release as Anthropic’s latest Mythos-class frontier large language model. It delivers measurable gains in long-horizon coding, agentic reasoning, and knowledge-work benchmarks over Fable 5 and Opus 5, with top scores on leaderboards as of mid-September 2026. Trader consensus reflects the model’s recent availability across major platforms, improved efficiency for complex tasks, and lack of stronger competing releases in the prior two weeks. Opus 5 variants trail at low single-digit odds, consistent with their earlier July launch and comparatively lower performance on the hardest evaluations. With resolution imminent, the market prices in limited scope for rapid shifts before September 21.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,688วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 21, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Claude Fable 5.1 Max holds an 82.5% market-implied probability** of being the best AI model on September 21 due to its September 1 release as Anthropic’s latest Mythos-class frontier large language model. It delivers measurable gains in long-horizon coding, agentic reasoning, and knowledge-work benchmarks over Fable 5 and Opus 5, with top scores on leaderboards as of mid-September 2026. Trader consensus reflects the model’s recent availability across major platforms, improved efficiency for complex tasks, and lack of stronger competing releases in the prior two weeks. Opus 5 variants trail at low single-digit odds, consistent with their earlier July launch and comparatively lower performance on the hardest evaluations. With resolution imminent, the market prices in limited scope for rapid shifts before September 21.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
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