Anthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 Max drives the 87.5% market-implied odds, as the model posts large gains on coding, agentic reasoning, and scientific benchmarks like Terminal-Bench-Science 0.1 (52.6% versus roughly half that for Fable 5). The upgrade adds stronger long-horizon task handling and lower effective cost at moderate effort levels while retaining frontier safeguards, widening its lead over the July-launched Claude Opus 5 variants that trail at under 1%. With no competing frontier releases reported in the first ten days of September and the September 14 snapshot only days away, traders see limited room for an upset before the next evaluation cycle.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วclaude-fable-5.1-max 86%
Other 15%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
claude-opus-5-max <1%
$20,292 ปริมาณ
$20,292 ปริมาณ
Sep 14, 2026
claude-fable-5.1-max
86%
Other
15%
claude-opus-5-high
1%
claude-opus-5-max
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
<1%
claude-fable-5.1-max 86%
Other 15%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
claude-opus-5-max <1%
$20,292 ปริมาณ
$20,292 ปริมาณ
Sep 14, 2026
claude-fable-5.1-max
$9,175 ปริมาณ
86%
Other
$7,945 ปริมาณ
15%
claude-opus-5-high
$1,780 ปริมาณ
1%
claude-opus-5-max
$984 ปริมาณ
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$408 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 Max drives the 87.5% market-implied odds, as the model posts large gains on coding, agentic reasoning, and scientific benchmarks like Terminal-Bench-Science 0.1 (52.6% versus roughly half that for Fable 5). The upgrade adds stronger long-horizon task handling and lower effective cost at moderate effort levels while retaining frontier safeguards, widening its lead over the July-launched Claude Opus 5 variants that trail at under 1%. With no competing frontier releases reported in the first ten days of September and the September 14 snapshot only days away, traders see limited room for an upset before the next evaluation cycle.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$20,292วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 Max drives the 87.5% market-implied odds, as the model posts large gains on coding, agentic reasoning, and scientific benchmarks like Terminal-Bench-Science 0.1 (52.6% versus roughly half that for Fable 5). The upgrade adds stronger long-horizon task handling and lower effective cost at moderate effort levels while retaining frontier safeguards, widening its lead over the July-launched Claude Opus 5 variants that trail at under 1%. With no competing frontier releases reported in the first ten days of September and the September 14 snapshot only days away, traders see limited room for an upset before the next evaluation cycle.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$20,292วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 Max drives the 87.5% market-implied odds, as the model posts large gains on coding, agentic reasoning, and scientific benchmarks like Terminal-Bench-Science 0.1 (52.6% versus roughly half that for Fable 5). The upgrade adds stronger long-horizon task handling and lower effective cost at moderate effort levels while retaining frontier safeguards, widening its lead over the July-launched Claude Opus 5 variants that trail at under 1%. With no competing frontier releases reported in the first ten days of September and the September 14 snapshot only days away, traders see limited room for an upset before the next evaluation cycle.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
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