Constitutional limits on federal authority over elections remain the primary driver of the 92.5% implied probability against nationalization. The U.S. Constitution assigns states primary responsibility for setting the times, places, and manner of federal elections, with Congress holding override power. President Trump’s March 2026 executive order on citizenship verification lists and Postal Service mail ballot rules has faced multiple federal court injunctions, with judges citing lack of presidential power to displace state administration. Earlier statements urging Republicans to “nationalize” voting have been clarified by the White House as support for measures like the SAVE Act and voter eligibility checks rather than direct federal takeover. Even some Republican state officials and lawmakers have opposed broader federal intervention, reinforcing trader expectations that structural and legal barriers will prevent full nationalization before the November midterms.