Iran’s continued NPT membership despite recent IAEA Board of Governors referral to the UN Security Council on September 9, 2026, for safeguards non-compliance underpins trader expectations against withdrawal before 2027. The referral follows unresolved verification gaps at sites damaged in 2025 U.S. and Israeli strikes, including unaccounted 60%-enriched uranium stockpiles and restricted inspector access. Iranian officials have described withdrawal as a possible option requiring legal and strategic review but have not issued the required 90-day notice or advanced pending parliamentary bills from earlier in 2026. Limited IAEA cooperation persists under interim arrangements rather than formal exit, consistent with historical patterns where Tehran has used NPT leverage in negotiations without completing withdrawal.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВыйдет ли Иран из ДНЯО до 2027 года?
Выйдет ли Иран из ДНЯО до 2027 года?
Да
13% вероятность
$458,536 Объем
$458,536 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
13% вероятность
$458,536 Объем
$458,536 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran’s continued NPT membership despite recent IAEA Board of Governors referral to the UN Security Council on September 9, 2026, for safeguards non-compliance underpins trader expectations against withdrawal before 2027. The referral follows unresolved verification gaps at sites damaged in 2025 U.S. and Israeli strikes, including unaccounted 60%-enriched uranium stockpiles and restricted inspector access. Iranian officials have described withdrawal as a possible option requiring legal and strategic review but have not issued the required 90-day notice or advanced pending parliamentary bills from earlier in 2026. Limited IAEA cooperation persists under interim arrangements rather than formal exit, consistent with historical patterns where Tehran has used NPT leverage in negotiations without completing withdrawal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Объем
$458,536Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran’s continued NPT membership despite recent IAEA Board of Governors referral to the UN Security Council on September 9, 2026, for safeguards non-compliance underpins trader expectations against withdrawal before 2027. The referral follows unresolved verification gaps at sites damaged in 2025 U.S. and Israeli strikes, including unaccounted 60%-enriched uranium stockpiles and restricted inspector access. Iranian officials have described withdrawal as a possible option requiring legal and strategic review but have not issued the required 90-day notice or advanced pending parliamentary bills from earlier in 2026. Limited IAEA cooperation persists under interim arrangements rather than formal exit, consistent with historical patterns where Tehran has used NPT leverage in negotiations without completing withdrawal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$458,536Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Iran’s continued NPT membership despite recent IAEA Board of Governors referral to the UN Security Council on September 9, 2026, for safeguards non-compliance underpins trader expectations against withdrawal before 2027. The referral follows unresolved verification gaps at sites damaged in 2025 U.S. and Israeli strikes, including unaccounted 60%-enriched uranium stockpiles and restricted inspector access. Iranian officials have described withdrawal as a possible option requiring legal and strategic review but have not issued the required 90-day notice or advanced pending parliamentary bills from earlier in 2026. Limited IAEA cooperation persists under interim arrangements rather than formal exit, consistent with historical patterns where Tehran has used NPT leverage in negotiations without completing withdrawal.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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