**Recent polling consistently shows a strong majority of Albertans favoring the option to remain a province of Canada in the October 19, 2026, non-binding referendum, with remain support ranging from 61-74% across multiple surveys and support for initiating the constitutional process toward a future binding independence vote at 19-33%.** Premier Danielle Smith's government framed the question as a mandate to negotiate greater provincial autonomy rather than immediate secession, aligning with her own stated preference to stay in Canada. Legal challenges involving First Nations treaty rights consultation previously blocked direct separation petitions, leading to the current wording. Business organizations, including the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, have highlighted potential economic disruption, while pro-remain campaigns stress high turnout to affirm federal ties. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 92% implied probability for a "no" outcome on an independence vote in 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$291,597 Объем
$291,597 Объем
Да
$291,597 Объем
$291,597 Объем
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling consistently shows a strong majority of Albertans favoring the option to remain a province of Canada in the October 19, 2026, non-binding referendum, with remain support ranging from 61-74% across multiple surveys and support for initiating the constitutional process toward a future binding independence vote at 19-33%.** Premier Danielle Smith's government framed the question as a mandate to negotiate greater provincial autonomy rather than immediate secession, aligning with her own stated preference to stay in Canada. Legal challenges involving First Nations treaty rights consultation previously blocked direct separation petitions, leading to the current wording. Business organizations, including the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, have highlighted potential economic disruption, while pro-remain campaigns stress high turnout to affirm federal ties. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 92% implied probability for a "no" outcome on an independence vote in 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы