**Traders see just a 26.5% chance that Clavicular’s Massachusetts charges will be dropped by October 31, pricing “No” at 73.5%.** The market covers the serious felony case filed September 8, 2026, in Orleans District Court involving one count each of rape, drugging a person for sexual intercourse, and furnishing alcohol to a minor tied to a May 23, 2025, incident at the influencer’s family home on Cape Cod. Arraignment is set for October 14—only two weeks before the resolution cutoff—leaving minimal time for dismissal or reduction to a non-felony. Court records show probable cause was already established, and such allegations typically move slowly through arraignment, discovery, and motions rather than vanishing quickly. While Clavicular’s prior cases (Florida battery conspiracy and Arizona forgery/drug charges) were dropped for insufficient evidence or lack of conviction likelihood, this matter involves a complainant, civil-suit overlap, and more severe accusations that prosecutors have chosen to pursue. The tight timeline, gravity of the charges, and standard pace of felony proceedings underpin the strong market lean toward “No,” with any swift resolution seen as unlikely absent an immediate, unexpected development.