The US military has sustained an all-volunteer force since 1973, with active and reserve components meeting or exceeding fiscal year 2026 recruiting targets through mid-year without shortfalls that would prompt conscription. No legislation has advanced in Congress to authorize induction under the Military Selective Service Act, and the automatic registration update scheduled for December 2026 under the prior National Defense Authorization Act represents only an administrative database change rather than draft activation. Trader consensus at 96.5% for no reflects the absence of any declared national emergency, major ground conflict, or recruitment collapse that historically preceded past drafts, along with the structural requirement for specific congressional passage and presidential approval. Late developments such as a sudden large-scale war exceeding volunteer capacity or rapid deterioration in enlistment numbers could still shift the outlook before year-end.