The US revocation of Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti’s visa in early August 2026 was framed by the State Department as a reversible reciprocal step tied to stalled approval of the US ambassador nominee and other visa denials, with officials repeatedly clarifying it did not constitute formal expulsion or persona non grata status. Subsequent developments have centered on tariff negotiations and limited law-enforcement visa frictions rather than further escalation, with both governments maintaining diplomatic channels ahead of Brazil’s October presidential vote and a planned G20 ministerial meeting at the end of September. Traders assign 98.2% probability to “No” because the pattern of calibrated, non-final measures and scheduled talks through September 30 leaves little room for a sudden formal expulsion. A rapid breakdown in those talks or an unforeseen Brazilian action could still shift the outcome in the remaining days.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
2% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
Да
2% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The US revocation of Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti’s visa in early August 2026 was framed by the State Department as a reversible reciprocal step tied to stalled approval of the US ambassador nominee and other visa denials, with officials repeatedly clarifying it did not constitute formal expulsion or persona non grata status. Subsequent developments have centered on tariff negotiations and limited law-enforcement visa frictions rather than further escalation, with both governments maintaining diplomatic channels ahead of Brazil’s October presidential vote and a planned G20 ministerial meeting at the end of September. Traders assign 98.2% probability to “No” because the pattern of calibrated, non-final measures and scheduled talks through September 30 leaves little room for a sudden formal expulsion. A rapid breakdown in those talks or an unforeseen Brazilian action could still shift the outcome in the remaining days.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 11, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Объем
$3,158Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 8:29 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The US revocation of Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti’s visa in early August 2026 was framed by the State Department as a reversible reciprocal step tied to stalled approval of the US ambassador nominee and other visa denials, with officials repeatedly clarifying it did not constitute formal expulsion or persona non grata status. Subsequent developments have centered on tariff negotiations and limited law-enforcement visa frictions rather than further escalation, with both governments maintaining diplomatic channels ahead of Brazil’s October presidential vote and a planned G20 ministerial meeting at the end of September. Traders assign 98.2% probability to “No” because the pattern of calibrated, non-final measures and scheduled talks through September 30 leaves little room for a sudden formal expulsion. A rapid breakdown in those talks or an unforeseen Brazilian action could still shift the outcome in the remaining days.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$3,158Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 8:29 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The US revocation of Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti’s visa in early August 2026 was framed by the State Department as a reversible reciprocal step tied to stalled approval of the US ambassador nominee and other visa denials, with officials repeatedly clarifying it did not constitute formal expulsion or persona non grata status. Subsequent developments have centered on tariff negotiations and limited law-enforcement visa frictions rather than further escalation, with both governments maintaining diplomatic channels ahead of Brazil’s October presidential vote and a planned G20 ministerial meeting at the end of September. Traders assign 98.2% probability to “No” because the pattern of calibrated, non-final measures and scheduled talks through September 30 leaves little room for a sudden formal expulsion. A rapid breakdown in those talks or an unforeseen Brazilian action could still shift the outcome in the remaining days.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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