Houthi forces seized Perim Island (Mayun) in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait on September 11, 2026, after Saudi-backed Yemeni government troops withdrew during a rapid coastal offensive that also captured Mocha and nearby districts. The Iran-aligned group now holds the island alongside mainland positions and other Red Sea islands, strengthening its influence over a key chokepoint for international shipping. This development stems from intensified fighting that broke a prior truce and ties into broader regional tensions involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. Trader assessments of when control might shift hinge on the pace of any counteroffensive by government-aligned forces, potential external military or naval support, and the island's defensive challenges against amphibious operations. Scheduled diplomatic or escalation signals in the coming months could influence timelines for resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
30 сентября
4%
31 октября
15%
31 декабря
25%
$9,551 Объем
30 сентября
$1,730 Объем
4%
31 октября
$4,600 Объем
15%
31 декабря
$3,221 Объем
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen.
“No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Houthi forces seized Perim Island (Mayun) in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait on September 11, 2026, after Saudi-backed Yemeni government troops withdrew during a rapid coastal offensive that also captured Mocha and nearby districts. The Iran-aligned group now holds the island alongside mainland positions and other Red Sea islands, strengthening its influence over a key chokepoint for international shipping. This development stems from intensified fighting that broke a prior truce and ties into broader regional tensions involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. Trader assessments of when control might shift hinge on the pace of any counteroffensive by government-aligned forces, potential external military or naval support, and the island's defensive challenges against amphibious operations. Scheduled diplomatic or escalation signals in the coming months could influence timelines for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen.
“No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen.
“No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Sep 17, 2026, 11:33 AM ET
Объем
$9,551Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 17, 2026, 11:33 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen.
“No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Houthi forces seized Perim Island (Mayun) in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait on September 11, 2026, after Saudi-backed Yemeni government troops withdrew during a rapid coastal offensive that also captured Mocha and nearby districts. The Iran-aligned group now holds the island alongside mainland positions and other Red Sea islands, strengthening its influence over a key chokepoint for international shipping. This development stems from intensified fighting that broke a prior truce and ties into broader regional tensions involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. Trader assessments of when control might shift hinge on the pace of any counteroffensive by government-aligned forces, potential external military or naval support, and the island's defensive challenges against amphibious operations. Scheduled diplomatic or escalation signals in the coming months could influence timelines for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen.
“No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen.
“No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$9,551Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 17, 2026, 11:33 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Houthi forces seized Perim Island (Mayun) in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait on September 11, 2026, after Saudi-backed Yemeni government troops withdrew during a rapid coastal offensive that also captured Mocha and nearby districts. The Iran-aligned group now holds the island alongside mainland positions and other Red Sea islands, strengthening its influence over a key chokepoint for international shipping. This development stems from intensified fighting that broke a prior truce and ties into broader regional tensions involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. Trader assessments of when control might shift hinge on the pace of any counteroffensive by government-aligned forces, potential external military or naval support, and the island's defensive challenges against amphibious operations. Scheduled diplomatic or escalation signals in the coming months could influence timelines for resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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