Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the central Persian Gulf, remains under uninterrupted Iranian governmental and military authority amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military sites on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to disrupt threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping, yet operations have emphasized degradation of capabilities rather than territorial occupation or handover. No verified seizures, landings, or sovereignty shifts have affected Farsi, and Iranian officials continue to assert control over Gulf islands through official statements. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of control by late September 2026 stay below 2 percent, consistent with the absence of plans or escalations aimed at this limited strategic asset and historical patterns of retained Iranian authority despite regional tensions. Further U.S. military actions or diplomatic developments in the conflict could alter trajectories before year-end resolution windows.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОстров Фарси больше не находится под контролем Ирана...?
Остров Фарси больше не находится под контролем Ирана...?
$198,462 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
30 сентября
1%
$198,462 Объем
30 сентября
$21,191 Объем
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the central Persian Gulf, remains under uninterrupted Iranian governmental and military authority amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military sites on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to disrupt threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping, yet operations have emphasized degradation of capabilities rather than territorial occupation or handover. No verified seizures, landings, or sovereignty shifts have affected Farsi, and Iranian officials continue to assert control over Gulf islands through official statements. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of control by late September 2026 stay below 2 percent, consistent with the absence of plans or escalations aimed at this limited strategic asset and historical patterns of retained Iranian authority despite regional tensions. Further U.S. military actions or diplomatic developments in the conflict could alter trajectories before year-end resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Объем
$198,462Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the central Persian Gulf, remains under uninterrupted Iranian governmental and military authority amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military sites on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to disrupt threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping, yet operations have emphasized degradation of capabilities rather than territorial occupation or handover. No verified seizures, landings, or sovereignty shifts have affected Farsi, and Iranian officials continue to assert control over Gulf islands through official statements. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of control by late September 2026 stay below 2 percent, consistent with the absence of plans or escalations aimed at this limited strategic asset and historical patterns of retained Iranian authority despite regional tensions. Further U.S. military actions or diplomatic developments in the conflict could alter trajectories before year-end resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$198,462Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the central Persian Gulf, remains under uninterrupted Iranian governmental and military authority amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military sites on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to disrupt threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping, yet operations have emphasized degradation of capabilities rather than territorial occupation or handover. No verified seizures, landings, or sovereignty shifts have affected Farsi, and Iranian officials continue to assert control over Gulf islands through official statements. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of control by late September 2026 stay below 2 percent, consistent with the absence of plans or escalations aimed at this limited strategic asset and historical patterns of retained Iranian authority despite regional tensions. Further U.S. military actions or diplomatic developments in the conflict could alter trajectories before year-end resolution windows.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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