Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 “comes out in 10 days” anchors trader expectations around mid-September, with the tight cluster of 30–35% probabilities across September 12–17 reflecting uncertainty over exact rollout timing rather than broader doubt about an imminent launch. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, is positioned as a meaningful step up in capability and token efficiency, intensifying competitive pressure against models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Historical slippage in xAI timelines and the distinction between API availability versus broader platform access create the narrow spread in implied odds, while the absence of any official model card or release notes as of early September keeps resolution dependent on the next verified deployment signal.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСледующая модель Grok (4.7+) выпущена...?
Следующая модель Grok (4.7+) выпущена...?
17 сентября 38.0%
15 сентября 37.8%
16 сентября 37.3%
12 сентября 35.8%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
9 сент. 2026 г.
До 9 сентября включительно
-
10 сентября
1%
11 сентября
1%
12 сентября
36%
13 сентября
1%
14 сентября
32%
15 сентября
38%
16 сентября
37%
17 сентября
38%
18 сентября
21%
19 сентября
1%
20 сентября
1%
21 сентября
1%
22 сентября
3%
23 сентября
7%
24 сентября
3%
25 сентября
1%
26 сентября
<1%
27 сентября
<1%
28 сентября
1%
29 сентября
1%
30 сентября
1%
Нет релиза до 30 сентября
3%
17 сентября 38.0%
15 сентября 37.8%
16 сентября 37.3%
12 сентября 35.8%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
9 сент. 2026 г.
До 9 сентября включительно
$166 Объем
-
10 сентября
$202 Объем
1%
11 сентября
$205 Объем
1%
12 сентября
$550 Объем
36%
13 сентября
$322 Объем
1%
14 сентября
$205 Объем
32%
15 сентября
$257 Объем
38%
16 сентября
$215 Объем
37%
17 сентября
$215 Объем
38%
18 сентября
$411 Объем
21%
19 сентября
$530 Объем
1%
20 сентября
$505 Объем
1%
21 сентября
$505 Объем
1%
22 сентября
$345 Объем
3%
23 сентября
$572 Объем
7%
24 сентября
$345 Объем
3%
25 сентября
$505 Объем
1%
26 сентября
$505 Объем
<1%
27 сентября
$505 Объем
<1%
28 сентября
$379 Объем
1%
29 сентября
$379 Объем
1%
30 сентября
$505 Объем
1%
Нет релиза до 30 сентября
$345 Объем
3%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 “comes out in 10 days” anchors trader expectations around mid-September, with the tight cluster of 30–35% probabilities across September 12–17 reflecting uncertainty over exact rollout timing rather than broader doubt about an imminent launch. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, is positioned as a meaningful step up in capability and token efficiency, intensifying competitive pressure against models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Historical slippage in xAI timelines and the distinction between API availability versus broader platform access create the narrow spread in implied odds, while the absence of any official model card or release notes as of early September keeps resolution dependent on the next verified deployment signal.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
Объем
$8,674Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 “comes out in 10 days” anchors trader expectations around mid-September, with the tight cluster of 30–35% probabilities across September 12–17 reflecting uncertainty over exact rollout timing rather than broader doubt about an imminent launch. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, is positioned as a meaningful step up in capability and token efficiency, intensifying competitive pressure against models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Historical slippage in xAI timelines and the distinction between API availability versus broader platform access create the narrow spread in implied odds, while the absence of any official model card or release notes as of early September keeps resolution dependent on the next verified deployment signal.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$8,674Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 “comes out in 10 days” anchors trader expectations around mid-September, with the tight cluster of 30–35% probabilities across September 12–17 reflecting uncertainty over exact rollout timing rather than broader doubt about an imminent launch. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, is positioned as a meaningful step up in capability and token efficiency, intensifying competitive pressure against models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Historical slippage in xAI timelines and the distinction between API availability versus broader platform access create the narrow spread in implied odds, while the absence of any official model card or release notes as of early September keeps resolution dependent on the next verified deployment signal.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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