Microsoft announced MAI-Thinking-1 on June 2, 2026, at its Build conference as the flagship of seven new in-house MAI models, marking the company’s first dedicated reasoning large language model developed from scratch without distillation from third-party systems. The 35B-active-parameter Mixture-of-Experts model delivers competitive performance on SWE-Bench Pro coding benchmarks and AIME math evaluations while earning higher human preference ratings than Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind tests, positioning it as a cost-efficient alternative in the medium-weight class. This release reflects Microsoft AI’s accelerating independence from OpenAI amid renegotiated partnerships and its focus on enterprise-grade, traceable data for Azure Foundry and GitHub Copilot integration. Traders are watching for production rollout timelines, additional capability updates, or competing reasoning models from Anthropic, OpenAI, or Google that could shift perceived leadership in the segment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNew MAI thinking model released by...?
New MAI thinking model released by...?
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
September 30
26%
December 31
56%
$489 Объем
September 30
$188 Объем
26%
December 31
$301 Объем
56%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft announced MAI-Thinking-1 on June 2, 2026, at its Build conference as the flagship of seven new in-house MAI models, marking the company’s first dedicated reasoning large language model developed from scratch without distillation from third-party systems. The 35B-active-parameter Mixture-of-Experts model delivers competitive performance on SWE-Bench Pro coding benchmarks and AIME math evaluations while earning higher human preference ratings than Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind tests, positioning it as a cost-efficient alternative in the medium-weight class. This release reflects Microsoft AI’s accelerating independence from OpenAI amid renegotiated partnerships and its focus on enterprise-grade, traceable data for Azure Foundry and GitHub Copilot integration. Traders are watching for production rollout timelines, additional capability updates, or competing reasoning models from Anthropic, OpenAI, or Google that could shift perceived leadership in the segment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
Объем
$489Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft announced MAI-Thinking-1 on June 2, 2026, at its Build conference as the flagship of seven new in-house MAI models, marking the company’s first dedicated reasoning large language model developed from scratch without distillation from third-party systems. The 35B-active-parameter Mixture-of-Experts model delivers competitive performance on SWE-Bench Pro coding benchmarks and AIME math evaluations while earning higher human preference ratings than Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind tests, positioning it as a cost-efficient alternative in the medium-weight class. This release reflects Microsoft AI’s accelerating independence from OpenAI amid renegotiated partnerships and its focus on enterprise-grade, traceable data for Azure Foundry and GitHub Copilot integration. Traders are watching for production rollout timelines, additional capability updates, or competing reasoning models from Anthropic, OpenAI, or Google that could shift perceived leadership in the segment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$489Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Microsoft announced MAI-Thinking-1 on June 2, 2026, at its Build conference as the flagship of seven new in-house MAI models, marking the company’s first dedicated reasoning large language model developed from scratch without distillation from third-party systems. The 35B-active-parameter Mixture-of-Experts model delivers competitive performance on SWE-Bench Pro coding benchmarks and AIME math evaluations while earning higher human preference ratings than Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind tests, positioning it as a cost-efficient alternative in the medium-weight class. This release reflects Microsoft AI’s accelerating independence from OpenAI amid renegotiated partnerships and its focus on enterprise-grade, traceable data for Azure Foundry and GitHub Copilot integration. Traders are watching for production rollout timelines, additional capability updates, or competing reasoning models from Anthropic, OpenAI, or Google that could shift perceived leadership in the segment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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