**Łukasz Gibała holds a commanding position in the Kraków mayoral race ahead of the September 27 first round, with recent polls showing him at 34–39% support compared to Monika Piątkowska’s 20–24% and Michał Drewnicki’s 10–15%.** Gibała, running as an independent on the local Kraków dla Mieszkańców committee, benefits from name recognition as the 2024 runner-up and broad appeal in a fragmented field of eight registered candidates. Piątkowska, backed by KO and PSL, trails as the main establishment alternative, while PiS candidate Drewnicki and smaller-party or independent contenders such as Daria Gosek-Popiołek, Aleksandra Owca, and Jan Hoffman register single-digit or lower figures. The election follows the May 2026 recall of prior mayor Aleksander Miszalski, which cleared the path for this snap contest. Multiple September surveys, including OGB for Polsat News, confirm Gibała’s lead in the first round and projected runoff victory over Piątkowska by roughly 62–38. These consistent polling trends and the compressed campaign timeline underpin the current market pricing, which reflects traders’ assessment of Gibała’s path to an outright or second-round win. A handful of undecided voters and last-minute shifts remain the primary variables before election day.