Recent military strikes by the US and Israel in 2025 severely damaged Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including enrichment sites, while the IAEA has lost continuity of knowledge on its enriched uranium stockpiles since June 2025. The September 10, 2026, IAEA Board referral of Iran's safeguards noncompliance to the UN Security Council underscores ongoing access restrictions and verification gaps, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% implied probability for no test before 2027. Iran's officials continue to affirm NPT commitments and peaceful intent amid construction activity at sites like Pickaxe Mountain. A test remains unlikely without major shifts such as NPT withdrawal, rapid recovery of hidden materials, or escalation in diplomatic breakdowns that enable unchecked weaponization efforts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
5% вероятность
$258,465 Объем
$258,465 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
5% вероятность
$258,465 Объем
$258,465 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes by the US and Israel in 2025 severely damaged Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including enrichment sites, while the IAEA has lost continuity of knowledge on its enriched uranium stockpiles since June 2025. The September 10, 2026, IAEA Board referral of Iran's safeguards noncompliance to the UN Security Council underscores ongoing access restrictions and verification gaps, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% implied probability for no test before 2027. Iran's officials continue to affirm NPT commitments and peaceful intent amid construction activity at sites like Pickaxe Mountain. A test remains unlikely without major shifts such as NPT withdrawal, rapid recovery of hidden materials, or escalation in diplomatic breakdowns that enable unchecked weaponization efforts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Объем
$258,465Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes by the US and Israel in 2025 severely damaged Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including enrichment sites, while the IAEA has lost continuity of knowledge on its enriched uranium stockpiles since June 2025. The September 10, 2026, IAEA Board referral of Iran's safeguards noncompliance to the UN Security Council underscores ongoing access restrictions and verification gaps, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% implied probability for no test before 2027. Iran's officials continue to affirm NPT commitments and peaceful intent amid construction activity at sites like Pickaxe Mountain. A test remains unlikely without major shifts such as NPT withdrawal, rapid recovery of hidden materials, or escalation in diplomatic breakdowns that enable unchecked weaponization efforts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$258,465Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent military strikes by the US and Israel in 2025 severely damaged Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including enrichment sites, while the IAEA has lost continuity of knowledge on its enriched uranium stockpiles since June 2025. The September 10, 2026, IAEA Board referral of Iran's safeguards noncompliance to the UN Security Council underscores ongoing access restrictions and verification gaps, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% implied probability for no test before 2027. Iran's officials continue to affirm NPT commitments and peaceful intent amid construction activity at sites like Pickaxe Mountain. A test remains unlikely without major shifts such as NPT withdrawal, rapid recovery of hidden materials, or escalation in diplomatic breakdowns that enable unchecked weaponization efforts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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