The strong Republican tilt of Indiana's 4th congressional district, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+15 and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring incumbent Jim Baird at 94.5%. Baird secured the Republican nomination with over 60% in the May primary and enters the November general with established name recognition, committee roles on agriculture and foreign affairs, and far superior fundraising compared to Democratic nominee Drew Cox. All major forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican. While the outcome appears settled six weeks before Election Day, late developments such as health concerns for the 81-year-old incumbent or unforeseen scandals could still shift probabilities in a district where voters have shown reliable preference for Republican candidates in House races.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоIN-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
IN-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$15,325 Объем
$15,325 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Джим Бэйрд (Р)
95%
Дрю Кокс (Д)
6%
$15,325 Объем
$15,325 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Джим Бэйрд (Р)
$11,631 Объем
95%
Дрю Кокс (Д)
$3,695 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican tilt of Indiana's 4th congressional district, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+15 and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring incumbent Jim Baird at 94.5%. Baird secured the Republican nomination with over 60% in the May primary and enters the November general with established name recognition, committee roles on agriculture and foreign affairs, and far superior fundraising compared to Democratic nominee Drew Cox. All major forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican. While the outcome appears settled six weeks before Election Day, late developments such as health concerns for the 81-year-old incumbent or unforeseen scandals could still shift probabilities in a district where voters have shown reliable preference for Republican candidates in House races.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Объем
$15,325Дата окончания
4 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican tilt of Indiana's 4th congressional district, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+15 and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring incumbent Jim Baird at 94.5%. Baird secured the Republican nomination with over 60% in the May primary and enters the November general with established name recognition, committee roles on agriculture and foreign affairs, and far superior fundraising compared to Democratic nominee Drew Cox. All major forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican. While the outcome appears settled six weeks before Election Day, late developments such as health concerns for the 81-year-old incumbent or unforeseen scandals could still shift probabilities in a district where voters have shown reliable preference for Republican candidates in House races.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$15,325Дата окончания
4 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2f5e3684c...The strong Republican tilt of Indiana's 4th congressional district, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+15 and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring incumbent Jim Baird at 94.5%. Baird secured the Republican nomination with over 60% in the May primary and enters the November general with established name recognition, committee roles on agriculture and foreign affairs, and far superior fundraising compared to Democratic nominee Drew Cox. All major forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican. While the outcome appears settled six weeks before Election Day, late developments such as health concerns for the 81-year-old incumbent or unforeseen scandals could still shift probabilities in a district where voters have shown reliable preference for Republican candidates in House races.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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