**Trader consensus places 400-500k deportations in 2026 at 71.5% implied probability, reflecting scaled interior enforcement that has lifted removal rates above prior fiscal-year baselines while remaining short of the administration’s 1 million annual target.** ICE data through mid-2026 show roughly 356,000 removals in the first nine-plus months of fiscal year 2026, averaging about 1,200–1,260 per day—on pace for a modern-era record near or above 400,000 for the fiscal year, exceeding the roughly 320,000–442,000 reported for fiscal 2025. Expanded detention capacity, higher arrest volumes in recent months, and additional funding have supported this acceleration. At the same time, daily deportation figures have remained relatively steady despite summer arrest surges, indicating logistical, legal, and diplomatic constraints—including repatriation coordination with foreign governments, court limits on expedited procedures, varying state and local cooperation, and reduced border encounters. Self-deportation initiatives have added voluntary departures, but official removal counts continue to anchor market pricing near the 400-500k band. Upcoming appropriations decisions and any policy adjustments could still influence year-end totals.