Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda and Republican challenger Brenton Awa head into the November 3 general election for Hawaii's 2nd congressional district after advancing unopposed or with overwhelming primary support on August 8. The district's D+12 partisan lean, Tokuda's 2024 performance exceeding 66 percent, and limited Republican resources have kept the race noncompetitive in most forecasts, yet the margin-of-victory market shows clustered probabilities across 30-45 point Democratic wins. Low campaign visibility, sparse polling, and uncertainty over third-candidate Edward Codelia's impact on vote splitting sustain tight trader pricing between leading options. Late developments such as national midterm swings, unexpected turnout shifts on neighbor islands, or major endorsements could widen or narrow the final spread before election day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHI-02 House Election Margin of Victory
HI-02 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 40-45% 33%
Democrat 35-40% 14%
Democrat 30-35% 14.0%
Democrat 45-50% 8.5%
$10,759 Объем
$10,759 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократ 50%+
6%
Democrat 45-50%
9%
Democrat 40-45%
33%
Democrat 35-40%
14%
Democrat 30-35%
14%
Демократ 25-30%
6%
Демократ 20-25%
4%
Демократ 10-20%
4%
Демократ 0-10%
<1%
Победа республиканца
<1%
Democrat 40-45% 33%
Democrat 35-40% 14%
Democrat 30-35% 14.0%
Democrat 45-50% 8.5%
$10,759 Объем
$10,759 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократ 50%+
$870 Объем
6%
Democrat 45-50%
$1,377 Объем
9%
Democrat 40-45%
$1,580 Объем
33%
Democrat 35-40%
$1,907 Объем
14%
Democrat 30-35%
$1,228 Объем
14%
Демократ 25-30%
$707 Объем
6%
Демократ 20-25%
$1,279 Объем
4%
Демократ 10-20%
$590 Объем
4%
Демократ 0-10%
$603 Объем
<1%
Победа республиканца
$618 Объем
<1%
The 2026 HI-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 HI-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda and Republican challenger Brenton Awa head into the November 3 general election for Hawaii's 2nd congressional district after advancing unopposed or with overwhelming primary support on August 8. The district's D+12 partisan lean, Tokuda's 2024 performance exceeding 66 percent, and limited Republican resources have kept the race noncompetitive in most forecasts, yet the margin-of-victory market shows clustered probabilities across 30-45 point Democratic wins. Low campaign visibility, sparse polling, and uncertainty over third-candidate Edward Codelia's impact on vote splitting sustain tight trader pricing between leading options. Late developments such as national midterm swings, unexpected turnout shifts on neighbor islands, or major endorsements could widen or narrow the final spread before election day.
The 2026 HI-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 HI-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 HI-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 7, 2026, 4:31 PM ET
Объем
$10,759Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 7, 2026, 4:31 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 HI-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 HI-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda and Republican challenger Brenton Awa head into the November 3 general election for Hawaii's 2nd congressional district after advancing unopposed or with overwhelming primary support on August 8. The district's D+12 partisan lean, Tokuda's 2024 performance exceeding 66 percent, and limited Republican resources have kept the race noncompetitive in most forecasts, yet the margin-of-victory market shows clustered probabilities across 30-45 point Democratic wins. Low campaign visibility, sparse polling, and uncertainty over third-candidate Edward Codelia's impact on vote splitting sustain tight trader pricing between leading options. Late developments such as national midterm swings, unexpected turnout shifts on neighbor islands, or major endorsements could widen or narrow the final spread before election day.
The 2026 HI-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 HI-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 HI-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$10,759Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 7, 2026, 4:31 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda and Republican challenger Brenton Awa head into the November 3 general election for Hawaii's 2nd congressional district after advancing unopposed or with overwhelming primary support on August 8. The district's D+12 partisan lean, Tokuda's 2024 performance exceeding 66 percent, and limited Republican resources have kept the race noncompetitive in most forecasts, yet the margin-of-victory market shows clustered probabilities across 30-45 point Democratic wins. Low campaign visibility, sparse polling, and uncertainty over third-candidate Edward Codelia's impact on vote splitting sustain tight trader pricing between leading options. Late developments such as national midterm swings, unexpected turnout shifts on neighbor islands, or major endorsements could widen or narrow the final spread before election day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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