Ed Case's position as the Democratic incumbent in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District, rated D+13 by the Cook Political Report, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring his November 3, 2026, reelection. The district, centered on Honolulu and Oahu, has delivered consistent Democratic margins, including Case's 71.8% win in 2024. His August 8 primary victory over state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole by roughly 60% to 36% eliminated the main internal challenge, while Republican nominee Adriel Lam advanced unopposed. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, aligning with historical base rates for incumbents in comparable districts. Late developments such as scandals or major national shifts remain the primary variables that could alter the low-probability path for Lam.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHI-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
HI-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$41,161 Объем
$41,161 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Эд Кейс (Д)
96%
Адриэль Лам (Р)
4%
$41,161 Объем
$41,161 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Эд Кейс (Д)
$15,163 Объем
96%
Адриэль Лам (Р)
$25,998 Объем
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ed Case's position as the Democratic incumbent in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District, rated D+13 by the Cook Political Report, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring his November 3, 2026, reelection. The district, centered on Honolulu and Oahu, has delivered consistent Democratic margins, including Case's 71.8% win in 2024. His August 8 primary victory over state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole by roughly 60% to 36% eliminated the main internal challenge, while Republican nominee Adriel Lam advanced unopposed. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, aligning with historical base rates for incumbents in comparable districts. Late developments such as scandals or major national shifts remain the primary variables that could alter the low-probability path for Lam.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Объем
$41,161Дата окончания
4 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ed Case's position as the Democratic incumbent in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District, rated D+13 by the Cook Political Report, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring his November 3, 2026, reelection. The district, centered on Honolulu and Oahu, has delivered consistent Democratic margins, including Case's 71.8% win in 2024. His August 8 primary victory over state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole by roughly 60% to 36% eliminated the main internal challenge, while Republican nominee Adriel Lam advanced unopposed. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, aligning with historical base rates for incumbents in comparable districts. Late developments such as scandals or major national shifts remain the primary variables that could alter the low-probability path for Lam.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$41,161Дата окончания
4 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2f5e3684c...Ed Case's position as the Democratic incumbent in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District, rated D+13 by the Cook Political Report, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring his November 3, 2026, reelection. The district, centered on Honolulu and Oahu, has delivered consistent Democratic margins, including Case's 71.8% win in 2024. His August 8 primary victory over state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole by roughly 60% to 36% eliminated the main internal challenge, while Republican nominee Adriel Lam advanced unopposed. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, aligning with historical base rates for incumbents in comparable districts. Late developments such as scandals or major national shifts remain the primary variables that could alter the low-probability path for Lam.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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