**No hantavirus vaccine is positioned for regulatory approval or widespread availability by the end of 2026, aligning with the market’s 94.5% implied probability on “No.”** Multiple candidates, including Moderna’s mRNA platform with Korea University and UTMB’s single-dose Andes-focused mRNA constructs, remain in preclinical or early Phase 1 stages as of mid-2026, with only animal protection data available and no completed large-scale human efficacy trials. Existing inactivated vaccines are limited to specific strains in China and South Korea and lack approval in the US or EU. Recent outbreaks, such as the Andes strain on the MV Hondius cruise ship, have heightened attention but have not accelerated any candidate past early development or secured emergency-use pathways. Standard vaccine timelines—often 8–15 years from preclinical work to licensure—plus challenges in conducting Phase 3 trials for a rare disease with dispersed cases reinforce the current trader consensus, though an unexpected surge in funding or breakthrough regulatory designation could theoretically shift timelines.