Recent Houthi threats and attacks amid broader Middle East escalation have kept war risk premiums elevated and stalled any sustained recovery in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily commodity vessel counts averaging around 25-27 as of early September. This environment favors the Cape of Good Hope route for most container and many tanker operators due to elevated operational hazards and insurance costs, limiting throughput to selective tanker and bulk movements. Trader consensus reflected in the 88.4% combined implied probability for sub-30 outcomes aligns with these persistent rerouting dynamics and the absence of near-term de-escalation catalysts before month-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСреднее количество судов, проходящих через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив в конце сентября?
Среднее количество судов, проходящих через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив в конце сентября?
<25 50.0%
25-29 39%
35-39 6%
30-34 5.1%
$16,874 Объем
$16,874 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
<25
50%
25-29
39%
30-34
5%
35-39
6%
40+
3%
<25 50.0%
25-29 39%
35-39 6%
30-34 5.1%
$16,874 Объем
$16,874 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
<25
$3,931 Объем
50%
25-29
$5,769 Объем
39%
30-34
$3,659 Объем
5%
35-39
$1,661 Объем
6%
40+
$1,854 Объем
3%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and attacks amid broader Middle East escalation have kept war risk premiums elevated and stalled any sustained recovery in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily commodity vessel counts averaging around 25-27 as of early September. This environment favors the Cape of Good Hope route for most container and many tanker operators due to elevated operational hazards and insurance costs, limiting throughput to selective tanker and bulk movements. Trader consensus reflected in the 88.4% combined implied probability for sub-30 outcomes aligns with these persistent rerouting dynamics and the absence of near-term de-escalation catalysts before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Открытие рынка: Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Объем
$16,874Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
IMF PortWatchКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and attacks amid broader Middle East escalation have kept war risk premiums elevated and stalled any sustained recovery in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily commodity vessel counts averaging around 25-27 as of early September. This environment favors the Cape of Good Hope route for most container and many tanker operators due to elevated operational hazards and insurance costs, limiting throughput to selective tanker and bulk movements. Trader consensus reflected in the 88.4% combined implied probability for sub-30 outcomes aligns with these persistent rerouting dynamics and the absence of near-term de-escalation catalysts before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Объем
$16,874Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
IMF PortWatchКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi threats and attacks amid broader Middle East escalation have kept war risk premiums elevated and stalled any sustained recovery in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily commodity vessel counts averaging around 25-27 as of early September. This environment favors the Cape of Good Hope route for most container and many tanker operators due to elevated operational hazards and insurance costs, limiting throughput to selective tanker and bulk movements. Trader consensus reflected in the 88.4% combined implied probability for sub-30 outcomes aligns with these persistent rerouting dynamics and the absence of near-term de-escalation catalysts before month-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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