Brazil’s Senate holds more than 100 pending impeachment requests against STF justices, primarily targeting Alexandre de Moraes, yet Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has declined to advance them, citing procedural norms and the absence of any historical precedent for removal. Conviction requires a two-thirds Senate vote (54 of 81 members), a threshold that current alignments make difficult to reach before 2027. Recent internal STF conflicts over the Banco Master investigations have fueled public distrust and opposition proposals to ease filing rules, but these changes remain under discussion and would not shorten the multi-step legislative process. Traders’ 95.6% implied probability on “No” reflects these institutional barriers and the compressed timeline, though a post-October election shift in Senate composition or an unforeseen procedural breakthrough could still alter the outlook.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
4% вероятность
$91,769 Объем
$91,769 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
4% вероятность
$91,769 Объем
$91,769 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil’s Senate holds more than 100 pending impeachment requests against STF justices, primarily targeting Alexandre de Moraes, yet Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has declined to advance them, citing procedural norms and the absence of any historical precedent for removal. Conviction requires a two-thirds Senate vote (54 of 81 members), a threshold that current alignments make difficult to reach before 2027. Recent internal STF conflicts over the Banco Master investigations have fueled public distrust and opposition proposals to ease filing rules, but these changes remain under discussion and would not shorten the multi-step legislative process. Traders’ 95.6% implied probability on “No” reflects these institutional barriers and the compressed timeline, though a post-October election shift in Senate composition or an unforeseen procedural breakthrough could still alter the outlook.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Объем
$91,769Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil’s Senate holds more than 100 pending impeachment requests against STF justices, primarily targeting Alexandre de Moraes, yet Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has declined to advance them, citing procedural norms and the absence of any historical precedent for removal. Conviction requires a two-thirds Senate vote (54 of 81 members), a threshold that current alignments make difficult to reach before 2027. Recent internal STF conflicts over the Banco Master investigations have fueled public distrust and opposition proposals to ease filing rules, but these changes remain under discussion and would not shorten the multi-step legislative process. Traders’ 95.6% implied probability on “No” reflects these institutional barriers and the compressed timeline, though a post-October election shift in Senate composition or an unforeseen procedural breakthrough could still alter the outlook.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$91,769Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Brazil’s Senate holds more than 100 pending impeachment requests against STF justices, primarily targeting Alexandre de Moraes, yet Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has declined to advance them, citing procedural norms and the absence of any historical precedent for removal. Conviction requires a two-thirds Senate vote (54 of 81 members), a threshold that current alignments make difficult to reach before 2027. Recent internal STF conflicts over the Banco Master investigations have fueled public distrust and opposition proposals to ease filing rules, but these changes remain under discussion and would not shorten the multi-step legislative process. Traders’ 95.6% implied probability on “No” reflects these institutional barriers and the compressed timeline, though a post-October election shift in Senate composition or an unforeseen procedural breakthrough could still alter the outlook.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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