The 2026 Berlin state election on September 20 features a fragmented field where recent polls show Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and Greens clustered between 16-23%, with the SPD trailing. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition lacks a majority, and no two-party combination clears the 66-seat threshold in the Abgeordnetenhaus. This positions three-party arrangements such as a Linke-SPD-Greens alliance or a CDU-SPD-Greens Kenya coalition as the primary paths to government formation, though Greens have signaled reluctance toward CDU cooperation. AfD support remains isolated by the cross-party firewall, while BSW and FDP poll below the 5% threshold. Final campaign polling and coalition arithmetic will shape which parties secure inclusion in the next senate.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNOVO
31 dez 2026
Os Verdes
91%
SPD
90%
Linke
59%
CDU
36%
FDP
19%
FW
4%
BSW
3%
AfD
2%
$6,979 Vol.
Os Verdes
$290 Vol.
91%
SPD
$279 Vol.
90%
Linke
$2,269 Vol.
59%
CDU
$1,602 Vol.
36%
FDP
$260 Vol.
19%
FW
$680 Vol.
4%
BSW
$330 Vol.
3%
AfD
$1,269 Vol.
2%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The 2026 Berlin state election on September 20 features a fragmented field where recent polls show Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and Greens clustered between 16-23%, with the SPD trailing. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition lacks a majority, and no two-party combination clears the 66-seat threshold in the Abgeordnetenhaus. This positions three-party arrangements such as a Linke-SPD-Greens alliance or a CDU-SPD-Greens Kenya coalition as the primary paths to government formation, though Greens have signaled reluctance toward CDU cooperation. AfD support remains isolated by the cross-party firewall, while BSW and FDP poll below the 5% threshold. Final campaign polling and coalition arithmetic will shape which parties secure inclusion in the next senate.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
Volume
$6,979Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The 2026 Berlin state election on September 20 features a fragmented field where recent polls show Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and Greens clustered between 16-23%, with the SPD trailing. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition lacks a majority, and no two-party combination clears the 66-seat threshold in the Abgeordnetenhaus. This positions three-party arrangements such as a Linke-SPD-Greens alliance or a CDU-SPD-Greens Kenya coalition as the primary paths to government formation, though Greens have signaled reluctance toward CDU cooperation. AfD support remains isolated by the cross-party firewall, while BSW and FDP poll below the 5% threshold. Final campaign polling and coalition arithmetic will shape which parties secure inclusion in the next senate.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Volume
$6,979Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Berlin state election on September 20 features a fragmented field where recent polls show Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and Greens clustered between 16-23%, with the SPD trailing. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition lacks a majority, and no two-party combination clears the 66-seat threshold in the Abgeordnetenhaus. This positions three-party arrangements such as a Linke-SPD-Greens alliance or a CDU-SPD-Greens Kenya coalition as the primary paths to government formation, though Greens have signaled reluctance toward CDU cooperation. AfD support remains isolated by the cross-party firewall, while BSW and FDP poll below the 5% threshold. Final campaign polling and coalition arithmetic will shape which parties secure inclusion in the next senate.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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