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icon for Eleição do Estado de Berlim: Grüne Acima/Abaixo de 17%?
Mundo·Berlim

Eleição do Estado de Berlim: Grüne Acima/Abaixo de 17%?

icon for Eleição do Estado de Berlim: Grüne Acima/Abaixo de 17%?
Mundo·Berlim

Eleição do Estado de Berlim: Grüne Acima/Abaixo de 17%?

Acima

<1% chance
Polymarket

$9,727 Vol.

Acima

<1% chance
Polymarket

$9,727 Vol.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling throughout September 2026 placed Bündnis 90/Die Grünen consistently between 15% and 16%, reflecting voter shifts toward Die Linke and the AfD amid dissatisfaction with the prior CDU-SPD coalition on housing, migration, and economic issues. Pre-election surveys from Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA showed no upward momentum for the Greens, whose support had eroded from 18.4% in the 2023 repeat election. The September 20 vote produced a confirmed 14.3% share for the party, aligning with exit polls and final tallies. Trader consensus on the Under side at 98.6% stems from this stable polling trajectory and the completed count. Late adjustments via official certification or minor recount variances remain possible but would require unusually large errors to push the result across 17%.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$9,727
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Resultado proposto: Abaixo

Sem contestação

Resultado final: Abaixo

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling throughout September 2026 placed Bündnis 90/Die Grünen consistently between 15% and 16%, reflecting voter shifts toward Die Linke and the AfD amid dissatisfaction with the prior CDU-SPD coalition on housing, migration, and economic issues. Pre-election surveys from Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA showed no upward momentum for the Greens, whose support had eroded from 18.4% in the 2023 repeat election. The September 20 vote produced a confirmed 14.3% share for the party, aligning with exit polls and final tallies. Trader consensus on the Under side at 98.6% stems from this stable polling trajectory and the completed count. Late adjustments via official certification or minor recount variances remain possible but would require unusually large errors to push the result across 17%.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$9,727
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Resultado proposto: Abaixo

Sem contestação

Resultado final: Abaixo

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleição do Estado de Berlim: Grüne Acima/Abaixo de 17%?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eleições Estaduais de Berlim: Grüne acima/abaixo de 17%?" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 0¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 0% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Eleição do Estado de Berlim: Grüne Acima/Abaixo de 17%?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 20, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Eleição do Estado de Berlim: Grüne Acima/Abaixo de 17%?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Eleição do Estado de Berlim: Grüne Acima/Abaixo de 17%?" is "Eleições Estaduais de Berlim: Grüne acima/abaixo de 17%?" at just 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Eleição do Estado de Berlim: Grüne Acima/Abaixo de 17%?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.