Recent US-mediated diplomacy, including envoys' September 2026 visits to Moscow and Kyiv, has produced signals of openness to trilateral talks but no concrete progress toward a signed agreement. Russia continues offensive operations and insists on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donetsk territory, while Ukraine rejects territorial concessions without robust, long-term security guarantees. Prior negotiation rounds earlier in 2026 stalled over these same issues amid sustained fighting and attacks on energy infrastructure. With only months remaining before 2027 and no ceasefire in place, trader pricing of an 89.5% chance against a deal reflects the scale of unresolved disputes and limited diplomatic momentum.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
11% chance
$2,713,639 Vol.
$2,713,639 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
11% chance
$2,713,639 Vol.
$2,713,639 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent US-mediated diplomacy, including envoys' September 2026 visits to Moscow and Kyiv, has produced signals of openness to trilateral talks but no concrete progress toward a signed agreement. Russia continues offensive operations and insists on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donetsk territory, while Ukraine rejects territorial concessions without robust, long-term security guarantees. Prior negotiation rounds earlier in 2026 stalled over these same issues amid sustained fighting and attacks on energy infrastructure. With only months remaining before 2027 and no ceasefire in place, trader pricing of an 89.5% chance against a deal reflects the scale of unresolved disputes and limited diplomatic momentum.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,713,639Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent US-mediated diplomacy, including envoys' September 2026 visits to Moscow and Kyiv, has produced signals of openness to trilateral talks but no concrete progress toward a signed agreement. Russia continues offensive operations and insists on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donetsk territory, while Ukraine rejects territorial concessions without robust, long-term security guarantees. Prior negotiation rounds earlier in 2026 stalled over these same issues amid sustained fighting and attacks on energy infrastructure. With only months remaining before 2027 and no ceasefire in place, trader pricing of an 89.5% chance against a deal reflects the scale of unresolved disputes and limited diplomatic momentum.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,713,639Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-mediated diplomacy, including envoys' September 2026 visits to Moscow and Kyiv, has produced signals of openness to trilateral talks but no concrete progress toward a signed agreement. Russia continues offensive operations and insists on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donetsk territory, while Ukraine rejects territorial concessions without robust, long-term security guarantees. Prior negotiation rounds earlier in 2026 stalled over these same issues amid sustained fighting and attacks on energy infrastructure. With only months remaining before 2027 and no ceasefire in place, trader pricing of an 89.5% chance against a deal reflects the scale of unresolved disputes and limited diplomatic momentum.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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