Diplomatic efforts have produced bilateral meetings between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in 2025 along with repeated Trump-Zelenskyy contacts, yet no verified instance exists of all three leaders appearing together in the same frame. Russian officials have stated that any trilateral summit would occur only after agreements are finalized, a condition unmet amid persistent territorial disputes, security guarantee disagreements, and intensified fighting. Recent U.S. envoy visits and phone calls have restarted lower-level talks without advancing to a leader-level trilateral format, and the short remaining window before 2027 leaves little scope for the necessary breakthroughs. Traders therefore assign the outcome a low implied probability, viewing the structural and political barriers as durable in the near term.