Recent caucus discussions and polling underscore limited momentum for replacing Pierre Poilievre before year-end. In January 2026, party delegates delivered an 87-88% leadership review endorsement, and recent surveys show roughly 57% of prior Conservative voters prefer he lead into the next election. While some MPs have expressed private frustration amid Liberal gains under Prime Minister Mark Carney and ongoing caucus defections, party sources report no organized effort to invoke the Reform Act or initiate a contest, citing risks of internal division and Poilievre's base support. With the December 31, 2026, resolution window approaching, the absence of scheduled votes or viable challengers reinforces trader expectations that he will remain in place.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
12% chance
$158,971 Vol.
$158,971 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
12% chance
$158,971 Vol.
$158,971 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent caucus discussions and polling underscore limited momentum for replacing Pierre Poilievre before year-end. In January 2026, party delegates delivered an 87-88% leadership review endorsement, and recent surveys show roughly 57% of prior Conservative voters prefer he lead into the next election. While some MPs have expressed private frustration amid Liberal gains under Prime Minister Mark Carney and ongoing caucus defections, party sources report no organized effort to invoke the Reform Act or initiate a contest, citing risks of internal division and Poilievre's base support. With the December 31, 2026, resolution window approaching, the absence of scheduled votes or viable challengers reinforces trader expectations that he will remain in place.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:02 PM ET
Volume
$158,971Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent caucus discussions and polling underscore limited momentum for replacing Pierre Poilievre before year-end. In January 2026, party delegates delivered an 87-88% leadership review endorsement, and recent surveys show roughly 57% of prior Conservative voters prefer he lead into the next election. While some MPs have expressed private frustration amid Liberal gains under Prime Minister Mark Carney and ongoing caucus defections, party sources report no organized effort to invoke the Reform Act or initiate a contest, citing risks of internal division and Poilievre's base support. With the December 31, 2026, resolution window approaching, the absence of scheduled votes or viable challengers reinforces trader expectations that he will remain in place.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$158,971Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent caucus discussions and polling underscore limited momentum for replacing Pierre Poilievre before year-end. In January 2026, party delegates delivered an 87-88% leadership review endorsement, and recent surveys show roughly 57% of prior Conservative voters prefer he lead into the next election. While some MPs have expressed private frustration amid Liberal gains under Prime Minister Mark Carney and ongoing caucus defections, party sources report no organized effort to invoke the Reform Act or initiate a contest, citing risks of internal division and Poilievre's base support. With the December 31, 2026, resolution window approaching, the absence of scheduled votes or viable challengers reinforces trader expectations that he will remain in place.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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