Melanie Stansbury holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the NM-01 House race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, her incumbency advantage, and strong fundraising edge over Republican nominee Didi Okpareke. The seat, centered on Albuquerque and surrounding areas, has delivered Democratic margins in recent cycles, and forecasters rate it Solid Democratic with no competitive polling shifts reported. Both candidates advanced unopposed in June primaries, leaving the general election dynamics stable heading into November. A late national Republican surge, significant scandal, or major turnout surprise could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability factors in this environment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da casa NM-01
Vencedor da eleição da casa NM-01
$36,492 Vol.
$36,492 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Melanie Stansbury (D)
94%
Didi Okpareke (R)
6%
$36,492 Vol.
$36,492 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Melanie Stansbury (D)
$18,977 Vol.
94%
Didi Okpareke (R)
$17,515 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Melanie Stansbury holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the NM-01 House race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, her incumbency advantage, and strong fundraising edge over Republican nominee Didi Okpareke. The seat, centered on Albuquerque and surrounding areas, has delivered Democratic margins in recent cycles, and forecasters rate it Solid Democratic with no competitive polling shifts reported. Both candidates advanced unopposed in June primaries, leaving the general election dynamics stable heading into November. A late national Republican surge, significant scandal, or major turnout surprise could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability factors in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$36,492Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Melanie Stansbury holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the NM-01 House race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, her incumbency advantage, and strong fundraising edge over Republican nominee Didi Okpareke. The seat, centered on Albuquerque and surrounding areas, has delivered Democratic margins in recent cycles, and forecasters rate it Solid Democratic with no competitive polling shifts reported. Both candidates advanced unopposed in June primaries, leaving the general election dynamics stable heading into November. A late national Republican surge, significant scandal, or major turnout surprise could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability factors in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$36,492Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Melanie Stansbury holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the NM-01 House race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, her incumbency advantage, and strong fundraising edge over Republican nominee Didi Okpareke. The seat, centered on Albuquerque and surrounding areas, has delivered Democratic margins in recent cycles, and forecasters rate it Solid Democratic with no competitive polling shifts reported. Both candidates advanced unopposed in June primaries, leaving the general election dynamics stable heading into November. A late national Republican surge, significant scandal, or major turnout surprise could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability factors in this environment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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