The upcoming September 23 legislative elections have kept the market for Morocco’s next prime minister tightly contested, with traders pricing Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri highest on the strength of PAM’s positioning while assigning lower but non-negligible probabilities to RNI’s Mohamed Chaouki and Istiqlal’s Nizar Baraka. The three-party governing coalition’s internal strains, Akhannouch’s decision not to seek another term as RNI leader, and Fouzi Lekjaa’s mid-year move to PAM have introduced uncertainty over which party will finish first and therefore supply the head of government under Article 47. Campaign focus on purchasing power, employment, and territorial cohesion, combined with modest polling leads for the main lists and variable youth turnout, has prevented any single contender from pulling decisively ahead in trader assessments. Late shifts in seat projections or coalition signals before the vote could still widen the implied probabilities.